Asteroid striking moon could create chaos, more dumb jokes

An asteroid that looked like it might strike Earth in 2032 will almost assuredly miss us. Good news, right?

Well, not really, because YR4 may now strike the moon. (Yes, "YR4," which is a really great name for an asteroid. Memorable, scientific and short. Also, a good name for a rapper.) 

Yeah, an asteroid may hit the moon. This is the worst moon news since the 1978 overdose death of the drummer for the Who, am I right?

Scientists are downplaying the risk (Of course they are. Hey, did you see that our government now says climate change isn't manmade? I feel better. No need to change anything, I guess, as ocean levels rise and Fairfield becomes waterfront property).

A quick recap of YR4: In late 2024, scientists discovered the asteroid. By February, they said there was a better than 3% chance that YR4 could hit Earth by Dec. 22, 2032. It was the most danger we've had from an asteroid since the film "Armageddon" was released in 1998.

Eventually, experts essentially determined that YR4 would not hit Earth. Then came news this summer that the asteroid could hit the moon. The odds are 4.3%, which makes it the most likely moon interception since Warren Moon threw 21 picks for the Houston Oilers in 1993, am I right?

Astronomers (astrologers? I'm pretty sure it's astronomers, but astronomers and astrologers probably work in adjacent buildings) say the biggest danger of such a collision would be to astronauts or infrastructure on the moon at the time of impact (which seems a very risky life choice for an astronaut: "Hey, how about a trip to the moon in late 2032? What could possibly go wrong?"). 

Also in danger: satellites orbiting Earth, which seems kind of important. Satellites being affected should make us care. In fact, this possible collision could create more Moonies than the Unification Church in the 1970s, am I right?

YR4 is about 200 feet in diameter, so it could do plenty of damage. For context, that's the same diameter as (insert your own fat joke here. I won't do it anymore on the advice of my attorney).

YR4 is not large enough to be a "planet killer" as scientists charmingly call big asteroids, such as the one that led to the extinction of dinosaurs and launched the "Jurassic Park" movie series. YR4 is called a "city killer." Oh, that's all?

A collision between YR4 and the moon would likely be visible (the most visible moon event since Greg "Moon Man" Minton saved 30 games for the 1982 Giants, am I right?) and would create a new crater on the moon's surface while stirring up lunar dust. On Earth, we'd have a meteor shower that could cause up to a decade's worth of meteor debris in a few days.

Here's the good news: With seven-plus years to go, scientists are looking into ways to avoid a YR4 collision with the Earth or moon, including possibilities generally only seen in apocalyptic movies (a spacecraft that hits the meteor, for instance).

So calm down and remember the odds are roughly only 1-in-25 that an asteroid will slam into the moon around Christmas 2032. The most likely outcome is that YR4 misses both Earth and the moon and is just a reminder that we're often subject to the whims of the universe.

On the other hand, there's a chance that the asteroid strikes our main satellite and causes worse damage than scientists expected.

The worst case is foretold in a famous children's book. It might be, "Goodnight moon," am I right?

Reach Brad Stanhope at bradstanhope@outlook.com.