Asteroid could hit Solano County in 2032, but there's no reason to panic

There's no reason to panic. Barring something else happening, the odds are that you'll survive to see Christmas 2032.

Probably. Maybe. Or at least you probably won't die three days earlier when an asteroid hits Solano County. Probably won't.

In case you missed it, astronomers are now tracking a small asteroid (small = size of a strip mall) that could possibly hit the Earth Dec. 22, 2032.

Again, it seems unlikely. The latest odds are that it has a less than 1% chance of happening. Of course, previously, it was 2% and then 3% and now between 0% and 1%, so it's as unlikely as the U.S. men's hockey team beating the Soviet Union in the 1980 Olympics or someone winning $100 million in a lottery or maybe even someone having twins.

Wait a second! All of those things happened! I know multiple twins. Oh nooooooooooooooo.

Well, the asteroid, called 2024 YR4 (another reason to worry. The last time we named something after a year, it was COVID-19), is apparently going to come close to Earth in just under eight years.

That's the key. It's supposed to be close. Not to actually hit us.

History suggests that an asteroid colliding with Earth is unlikely. For instance, the most famous asteroid hit the Earth 66 million years ago. It crashed into the planet and caused a mass extinction that eliminated 75% of all species on Earth.

Scientists say something like that happens only every 50 million years or so, so . . . wait, it's been 66 million years since the last one, so we're 16 million years overdue? Oh nooooooooooo.

Well, never mind that. Let's look at more recent history. The most recent significant asteroid to hit Earth was 119 years ago, when one landed (landed = crashed into) a sparsely populated area of Russia, leveling more than 800 square miles of trees. Since Solano County is 900 square miles, that means . . . oh nooooooooooooooooooo.

The asteroid is estimated to be a few hundred feet wide, so it will just be like a gymnasium hitting the Earth. Or a small hospital (which would be convenient if it remained in service after the collision). Listen, it's unlikely this thing will hit the Earth and even more unlikely that it will hit Solano County. I'd say it's around the same odds as Buster Douglas knocking out heavyweight champion Mike Tyson in 1990.

Wait. That happened.

Well, consider this: The asteroid could be made out of rock, metal or some combination. Unfortunately, it's unlikely to be made out of Nerf, which would just make it fun. But metal is the biggest risk and what are the odds that it's made out of metal. Maybe 50%? Something like that?

So . . . 

Umm, there's some good news. Really. Scientists tell us that 2024 YR4 will again approach Earth in late 2028. Astronomers will be able to get a better estimate of whether it could hit, with the expectation that they can guess within 100 miles or so. I'm sure we're fine. And the fact that they've daily changed the odds of the asteroid striking us shouldn't shake our confidence in them, right?

Right?

After 2028, we'll have more certainty.

This is new territory. The asteroid collision 66 million years ago obviously came as a surprise to whatever was living then (Dick Van Dyke's grandfather?). The one in Russia in 1908 was a shocker.

This time, we could be ready.

I'm going to buy a helmet this year, just to be sure. And hope for a Nerf-filled asteroid in 2032.

Reach Brad Stanhope at bradstanhope@outlook.com.