Owning my five biggest mistakes in sports opinions

For most of the 1980s and 1990s, I heard that soccer was the next great American sport.

It was the world's most popular sport, after all. It was extremely popular among kids. Those kids were tomorrow's adults. It was exciting and global.

I called baloney, year after year.

My arguments were always the same: Kids played soccer until they reached high school, then decided to play football and basketball and volleyball and baseball and softball. I was sure soccer would never take hold in America. Soccer would always be popular among 8-year-olds, but not among adults.

I would tell people that kickball and foursquare had the same chance at being the next big sport as soccer.

I was right, year after year.

Until I was wrong.

Now soccer is a big sport in America. Soccer gets big TV ratings. Fifteen years ago, it surpassed hockey in surveys measuring American sports popularity, ranking behind only football, basketball and baseball. Now it's about to pass baseball to move into third place.

I was spectacularly wrong on soccer, which isn't a huge surprise. I think I know a lot about sports, so I have spent decades spouting decisions. They're often wrong, seldom in doubt.

I'm here today to own some of my biggest mistakes in forecasting sports.

Soccer's success ranks second on my worst predictions. Here is the rest of the top five.

5. Pablo Sandoval will be a Hall of Famer. When Pablo joined the Giants in 2008, I figured he'd be the first Hall of Famer for the team since Willie McCovey. Sandoval could hit, he was fun and he would certainly win two or three batting championships. Nope. Thirteen years later, Pablo is a pinch-hitting star for the Atlanta Braves, but if he wants to get in the Baseball Hall of Fame, he'll need to pay admission.

4. Alex Smith is better than Aaron Rodgers. When the 49ers picked Smith first in the 2005 draft rather than Cal quarterback Rodgers, I was sure it was correct. After all, Rodgers held the ball near his helmet's earhole while preparing to throw while at Cal, which looked dorky. That guy wouldn't be a good quarterback.  He couldn't. Fast forward 15 years and Rodgers was named the MVP last season. He will go straight to the Hall of Fame. Smith won't.

3. Billy Owens/Joe Smith/Larry Hughes/Monta Ellis will be an NBA star. For decades, I expected the best out of high draft picks by the Golden State Warriors. For decades, the players were serviceable. Just as I was ready to give up, they drafted Steph Curry and everything changed.

2. Soccer will never be a major American sport. See above.

1.  Steve DeBerg should remain the 49ers quarterback. In 1980, the 49ers were in the second year of a rebuilding effort with coach Bill Walsh. Steve DeBerg had just set the record for most completions and I thought he was a Pro Bowl caliber quarterback. Late in the season, Walsh started a second-year quarterback who was drafted in the third round the year before. I thought it was absurd, because that guy would never be as good as DeBerg. That guy was Joe Montana.

Reach Brad Stanhope at bradstanhope@outlook.com.